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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Plymouth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Plymouth 2-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.78 xG and Plymouth 0.67 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Plymouth attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 64% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 13%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 49%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Plymouth's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Middlesbrough arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights