Middlesbrough 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Riverside Stadium to face Middlesbrough in Championship (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Middlesbrough's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Hull City have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Middlesbrough. A 1.00 PPG lead over Hull City (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2024, ended Middlesbrough 2–2 Hull City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 54% versus Hull City 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 49% | Hull City 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.31 xG and Hull City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.977 / defence 1.113 | Hull City attack 0.882 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.044. Data: built from Middlesbrough's last 63 games and Hull City's last 63.
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 42% | Draw 30% | Hull City 28%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.39 | Draw 3.32 | Hull City 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Middlesbrough 40% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 18 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 42% | Draw 30% | Hull City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Middlesbrough 1.31 / Hull City 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.977 / def 1.113 | Hull City attack 0.882 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hull City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Middlesbrough vs Hull City kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Middlesbrough 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Hull City part of?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 42% chance of winning, Hull City a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Middlesbrough and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Middlesbrough vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.88x) against Middlesbrough's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Middlesbrough's last 63 games and Hull City's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.32
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.33
1.02
Hull City xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.02 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 12D 23L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.35 PPG from 63 outings (22W 19D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.35 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 31 away games (13W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.33 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Hull City
Blended
Middlesbrough (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Middlesbrough
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Middlesbrough and Hull City in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 28W 12D 23L in their last 63 games (1.52 PPG), while Hull City have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Hull City away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.55 PPG; Hull City away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won Hull City 1-4 Middlesbrough on 5 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Middlesbrough have won 5, Hull City have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 42%, Hull City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Middlesbrough) and 61% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 26% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Middlesbrough and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 61% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Middlesbrough and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 61% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 71% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Hull City 3-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.31 xG and Hull City 1.02 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 42% | Draw 30% | Hull City 28%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 49%, Hull City 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.52 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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