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Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Derby 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Derby 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.75 xG and Derby 0.86 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Derby attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 58% | Draw 24% | Derby 18%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 51%, Derby 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Derby's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.45 PPG, Derby 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights