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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Middlesbrough and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough and Bristol City finished level at 1-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.31 xG and Bristol City 0.73 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.99 / defence 0.73 against Bristol City attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 31% | Bristol City 20%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 49%, Bristol City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol City's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.60 PPG, Bristol City 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights