Leicester 0-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leicester and Swansea meet at King Power Stadium in Championship (matchday 42). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Leicester (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Swansea have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Swansea have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Leicester, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Swansea — Swansea have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Leicester 3–1 Swansea — a Leicester win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Leicester and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 36 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 62% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 60% | Swansea 49%). Note also that Swansea surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Leicester recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.56 xG and Swansea 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.007 / defence 1.402 | Swansea attack 0.917 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Swansea's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leicester's projected output up. Leicester's defence rating of 1.402 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Data: built from Leicester's last 41 games and Swansea's last 87.
Result probabilities: Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.70 | Draw 3.64 | Swansea 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Leicester 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Leicester's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 70% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Leicester 1.56 / Swansea 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.007 / def 1.402 | Swansea attack 0.917 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Leicester (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Swansea xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Swansea kick off?
Leicester vs Swansea kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Leicester 0 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Leicester vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Swansea part of?
Leicester vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 37% chance of winning, Swansea a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Leicester and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leicester vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.92x) against Leicester's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 41 games and Swansea's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.64
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.09
1.53
Swansea xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Leicester and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Leicester and 1.53 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 17W 21D 41L from 79 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 33L across 79 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Swansea by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leicester heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 11W 8D 20L from their last 39 home games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 11W 7D 21L across their last 39 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Leicester (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Leicester vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Swansea in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 17W 21D 41L in their last 79 games (0.91 PPG), while Swansea have gone 29W 17D 33L in their last 79 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Swansea away?
Leicester's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.05 PPG; Swansea away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Swansea?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 3, Swansea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Leicester 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Swansea?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Swansea 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Leicester) and 51% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 33% of games; Swansea in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Leicester's recent matches and 46% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leicester and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Leicester's recent games and 51% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Leicester's recent matches and 64% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Leicester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Leicester 0-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.56 xG and Swansea 1.53 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leicester fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Swansea attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Swansea 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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