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Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Leicester 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Leicester 0-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.56 xG and Swansea 1.53 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leicester fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Swansea attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Swansea 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights