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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Stoke City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Stoke City 2-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.79 xG and Stoke City 1.12 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Stoke City attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 26% | Draw 31% | Stoke City 43%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 55%, Stoke City 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Stoke City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stoke City arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Leicester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights