Leicester 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leicester face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leicester and Hull City meet at King Power Stadium in Championship (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Leicester's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Leicester have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Hull City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Leicester against 1.60 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Leicester's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Leicester's games and 70% of Hull City's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Leicester — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 57% versus Hull City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 64% | Hull City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.44 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.035 / defence 1.060 | Hull City attack 1.053 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.202. Data: built from Leicester's last 4 games and Hull City's last 50.
Result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 26% | Hull City 35%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.55 | Draw 3.86 | Hull City 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Leicester's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 70% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 5 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 26% | Hull City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Leicester 1.44 / Hull City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.035 / def 1.060 | Hull City attack 1.053 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Leicester (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hull City xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Hull City kick off?
Leicester vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Hull City?
Leicester 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Leicester vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Hull City part of?
Leicester vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Leicester and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leicester vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.05x) against Leicester's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 4 games and Hull City's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.86
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Hull City xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leicester and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Leicester and 1.34 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 7D 22L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.29 PPG from 42 outings (13W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Leicester against 1.29 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Leicester's home form reads 7W 4D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
Leicester (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Leicester vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Hull City in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Hull City have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.19 PPG; Hull City away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Leicester or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hull City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Leicester
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Hull City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 0, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: Leicester 2-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 52%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Leicester) and 48% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 38% of games; Hull City in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Leicester's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leicester and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Leicester's matches and 48% of Hull City's.
Do Leicester and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Leicester's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Leicester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Leicester 0-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.44 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leicester fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 39% | Draw 26% | Hull City 35%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Hull City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.10 PPG, Hull City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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