Leicester 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leicester and Hull City meet at King Power Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Leicester's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Leicester have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Power Stadium this season.
Hull City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Leicester against 1.60 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Leicester register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hull City in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Leicester — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 57% versus Hull City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 64% | Hull City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.44 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.035 / defence 1.060 | Hull City attack 1.053 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.202. Data: 4 Leicester games / 50 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 26% | Hull City 35%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Hull City 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | Hull City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 26% | Hull City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Leicester 1.44 / Hull City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.035 / def 1.060 | Hull City attack 1.053 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Leicester (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hull City xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Hull City kick off?
Leicester vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Hull City?
Leicester 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Leicester vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Hull City part of?
Leicester vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Leicester and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Hull City in?
Leicester (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.05x) against Leicester's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.86
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Hull City xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leicester and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Leicester and 1.34 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 7D 22L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.29 PPG from 42 outings (13W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Leicester against 1.29 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Leicester's home form reads 7W 4D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Hull City in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Hull City have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.19 PPG; Hull City away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Leicester or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hull City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Leicester
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 0, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Leicester 2-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 52%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Leicester) and 48% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 38% of games; Hull City in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Leicester's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Leicester's matches and 48% of Hull City's.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Leicester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Leicester 0-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.44 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leicester fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 39% | Draw 26% | Hull City 35%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Hull City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.10 PPG, Hull City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.