Hull City 1-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Bristol City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bristol City make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Hull City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hull City at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hull City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bristol City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Bristol City have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Hull City against 1.40 for Bristol City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Hull City's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) — Hull City have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Bristol City in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Hull City, 2 for Bristol City and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Hull City 0–1 Bristol City — a Bristol City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bristol City — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 53% versus Bristol City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 45% | Bristol City 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.28 xG and Bristol City 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.143 / defence 1.032 | Bristol City attack 0.927 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.146. Data: built from Hull City's last 49 games and Bristol City's last 49.
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Bristol City 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.47 | Draw 3.58 | Bristol City 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 30% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 4 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Bristol City 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Hull City 1.28 / Bristol City 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.143 / def 1.032 | Bristol City attack 0.927 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bristol City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Bristol City kick off?
Hull City vs Bristol City kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Hull City 1 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Hull City vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Bristol City part of?
Hull City vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Bristol City a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hull City and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Hull City vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hull City's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Bristol City's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.93x) against Hull City's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 49 games and Bristol City's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.58
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
Bristol City xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hull City and 1.10 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 16D 17L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.29 PPG from 49 outings (16W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Hull City against 1.29 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 10W 6D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 24 away games (7W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.16 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Bristol City
Early Season
Hull City (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Early Season
Bristol City
Early Season
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 16W 16D 17L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 16W 15D 18L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Bristol City away?
Hull City's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.50 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Hull City and Bristol City, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bristol City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won Bristol City 5-0 Hull City on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hull City
4
Draws
5
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bristol City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 1, Bristol City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Hull City 2-3 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 50%, Bristol City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 38% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Bristol City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Bristol City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hull City's recent matches and 50% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 38% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Hull City's recent matches and 71% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Hull City and Bristol City drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.28 xG and Bristol City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Bristol City attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 28% | Bristol City 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 45%, Bristol City 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol City's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.31 PPG, Bristol City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 4
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →