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Charlton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Leicester 0-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.75 xG and Charlton 1.02 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Leicester fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 54% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 63%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charlton's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights