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Poisson model rates Leicester at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 30 as Leicester welcome Charlton to King Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Championship games this season, Leicester have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Leicester's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Leicester) versus 0.90 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leicester have won 1, Charlton 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Leicester winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Leicester trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Charlton trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 61% versus Charlton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 63% | Charlton 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.75 xG and Charlton 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.005 / defence 1.193 | Charlton attack 0.736 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.158. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Leicester games / 28 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Leicester 54% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 4.76. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 90% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.

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