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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds and Swansea share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Elland Road, Regular Season - 39, as Leeds and Swansea drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.42 xG and Swansea 0.51 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 0.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.54 / defence 0.66 against Swansea attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 80% | Draw 14% | Swansea 6%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 49%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Swansea's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leeds (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights