Leeds vs Derby – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Derby 2-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.96 xG and Derby 0.67 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.29 / defence 0.70 against Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 67% | Draw 22% | Derby 11%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Derby 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Derby's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leeds 1.98 PPG, Derby 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights