Leeds vs Derby – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Leeds's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Leeds's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 64/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.45
11%
9.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.62
0.67
Derby xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
9.32
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
65.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Leeds and 0.67 for Derby, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.