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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Leeds run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Cardiff 7-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.37 xG and Cardiff 0.71 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.42 / defence 0.61 against Cardiff attack 1.14 / defence 1.21, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 48%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cardiff's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights