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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Leeds run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bristol City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Bristol City 4-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.38 xG and Bristol City 0.76 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.70 / defence 0.78 against Bristol City attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 73% | Draw 17% | Bristol City 10%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 49%, Bristol City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bristol City's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights