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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Stoke City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Stoke City 1-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.51 xG and Stoke City 0.88 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Stoke City attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 51% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 21%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Stoke City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Stoke City's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 0.93 PPG, Stoke City 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights