Ipswich 1-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Leicester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ipswich welcome Leicester to Portman Road in Championship (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ipswich stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Leicester — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Leicester away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ipswich are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ipswich, 2 for Leicester and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Ipswich 1–3 Leicester — a Leicester win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Leicester in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 58% versus Leicester 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Leicester 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.01 xG and Leicester 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.231 / defence 0.687 | Leicester attack 0.996 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.212. Leicester's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ipswich's projected output up. Ipswich have a tight defence (rating 0.687), which is pulling Leicester's projected output down. Data: built from Ipswich's last 34 games and Leicester's last 35.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 64% | Draw 23% | Leicester 14%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.57 | Draw 4.42 | Leicester 7.40. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (64%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ipswich 30% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 64% | Draw 23% | Leicester 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Ipswich 2.01 / Leicester 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.231 / def 0.687 | Leicester attack 0.996 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Leicester xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Leicester kick off?
Ipswich vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Leicester?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Ipswich vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Leicester part of?
Ipswich vs Leicester is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 64% chance of winning, Leicester a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ipswich and Leicester will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Ipswich vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Leicester's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 34 games and Leicester's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
64%
1.57
23%
4.42
14%
7.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.84
0.83
Leicester xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
7.40
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
55.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.83 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich come into this having played 72 games, going 22W 19D 31L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 0.89 PPG from 72 outings (16W 16D 40L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.18 PPG, Leicester on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ipswich's home form reads 13W 9D 15L across their last 37 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 37 away games (6W 10D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.10 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 61%.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
Ipswich (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Ipswich vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Leicester in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 22W 19D 31L in their last 72 games (1.18 PPG), while Leicester have gone 16W 16D 40L in their last 72 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Leicester away?
Ipswich's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.30 PPG; Leicester away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ipswich
4
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Leicester?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 0, Leicester have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Ipswich 1-1 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 49%, Leicester 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Ipswich and 73% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich have failed to score in 27% of games; Leicester in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Leicester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Ipswich's games and 70% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ipswich and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ipswich's matches and 73% of Leicester's.
Do Ipswich and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Ipswich's recent matches and 81% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 36, as Ipswich and Leicester drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.01 xG and Leicester 0.83 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.23 / defence 0.69 against Leicester attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 64% | Draw 23% | Leicester 14%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (72 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (72 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.18 PPG, Leicester 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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