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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ipswich and Derby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich and Derby finished level at 2-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.29 xG and Derby 1.29 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Derby attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 37% | Draw 27% | Derby 37%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 54%, Derby 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.02 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights