Ipswich 2-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Birmingham travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich in Championship (matchday 41). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ipswich stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ipswich at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ipswich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Birmingham — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Birmingham's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ipswich, 0 for Birmingham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2025, ended Ipswich 1–1 Birmingham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 59% versus Birmingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 54% | Birmingham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.68 xG and Birmingham 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.115 / defence 0.748 | Birmingham attack 0.690 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.206. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Ipswich have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Birmingham's projected output down. Data: built from Ipswich's last 38 games and Birmingham's last 40.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 12%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.61 | Draw 3.93 | Birmingham 8.01. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 50% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 41 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Ipswich 1.68 / Birmingham 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.115 / def 0.748 | Birmingham attack 0.690 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Birmingham xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Birmingham kick off?
Ipswich vs Birmingham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Ipswich vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Birmingham part of?
Ipswich vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 62% chance of winning, Birmingham a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ipswich and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Ipswich vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 38 games and Birmingham's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
62%
1.61
25%
3.93
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.30
0.62
Birmingham xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
2%
42.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.62 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 23W 22D 31L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 40W 19D 17L from 76 games, 1.83 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Birmingham are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ipswich.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 38 home games (13W 11D 14L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 16W 8D 14L from their last 38 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.47 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Ipswich (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Ipswich vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 23W 22D 31L in their last 76 games (1.20 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 40W 19D 17L in their last 76 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.32 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Birmingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ipswich
2
Draws
0
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Birmingham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 2, Birmingham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Ipswich 2-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Birmingham?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 53%, Birmingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ipswich) and 45% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ipswich's recent matches and 50% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ipswich and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ipswich's recent games and 45% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Ipswich's recent matches and 79% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Birmingham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Birmingham 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.68 xG and Birmingham 0.62 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Birmingham attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 12%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 54%, Birmingham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Ipswich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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