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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Hull City 0-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.34 xG and Stoke City 1.03 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Stoke City attack 0.76 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 43% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 28%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 43%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stoke City's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.29 PPG, Stoke City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights