🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Stoke City attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stoke City's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Stoke City 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights