Hull City 3-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Sheffield Wednesday in Championship (matchday 39). Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Hull City (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Hull City have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 0.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Hull City. A 1.20 PPG lead over Sheffield Wednesday (1.30 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Hull City 2–2 Sheffield Wednesday — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 36 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Sheffield Wednesday 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 46% | Sheffield Wednesday 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.96 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.082 / defence 1.357 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.645 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.177. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Hull City's defence rating of 1.357 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sheffield Wednesday's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 84 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 84.
Result probabilities: Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 18%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.73 | Draw 4.21 | Sheffield Wednesday 5.45. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Sheffield Wednesday 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hull City 1.96 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.082 / def 1.357 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.645 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Hull City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sheffield Wednesday xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Hull City 3 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 58% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hull City's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Wednesday's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.65x) against Hull City's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 84 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.21
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.99
1.03
Sheffield Wednesday xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
38.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hull City and 1.03 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 84 games, going 31W 19D 34L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 0.83 PPG from 84 outings (16W 22D 46L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Hull City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 14W 10D 17L across their last 41 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 41 away games (10W 9D 22L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 0.99 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Sheffield Wednesday (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 31W 19D 34L in their last 84 games (1.33 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 22D 46L in their last 84 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Hull City's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.27 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
2
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 3, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Hull City 3-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 61%, Sheffield Wednesday 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Hull City) and 63% (Sheffield Wednesday). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Sheffield Wednesday in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hull City's games and 51% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Hull City's matches and 63% of Sheffield Wednesday's.
Do Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Hull City's recent matches and 76% of Sheffield Wednesday's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sheffield Wednesday 3-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.96 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.08 / defence 1.36 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.65 / defence 1.39, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 18%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Sheffield Wednesday 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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