Hull City 1-3 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Hull City take on Sheffield Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Utd make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 0.71 PPG across 7 Championship outings this season: 1W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at The MKM Stadium this term (0.33 PPG).
Sheffield Utd's overall Championship record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sheffield Utd have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sheffield Utd's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Championship this season (0.67 PPG). 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.71 PPG for Hull City against 0.86 for Sheffield Utd. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Hull City have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Sheffield Utd in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 86% of games.
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Hull City 14% | Sheffield Utd 43%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 29% | Sheffield Utd 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.75 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.593 / defence 1.157 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.520 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.236. Hull City's attack strength of 0.593 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Hull City games / 7 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 29% | Draw 42% | Sheffield Utd 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.45 | Draw 2.38 | Sheffield Utd 3.45. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Sheffield Utd's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.49 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 0% | Sheffield Utd 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 29% | Draw 42% | Sheffield Utd 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 30% | xG Hull City 0.75 / Sheffield Utd 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.593 / def 1.157 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.520 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sheffield Utd xG
30%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Hull City vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Hull City 1 - 3 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Hull City vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 29% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 29% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Hull City and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Utd in?
Hull City (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hull City's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (0.52x) against Hull City's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (15.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
42%
2.40
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.49
0.74
Sheffield Utd xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.5 | 16.7 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Hull City and 0.74 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 3L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Hull City against 0.86 for Sheffield Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Sheffield Utd
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Sheffield Utd's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 0.33 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won 0-3 on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hull City
1
Draws
5
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Hull City) and 0% (Sheffield Utd) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Hull City and 33% for Sheffield Utd.
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 67%; Hull City have failed to score in 100% of games; Sheffield Utd in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hull City's recent matches and 0% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hull City's recent games and 33% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sheffield Utd cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 1-3 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.75 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.74 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sheffield Utd outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.59 / defence 1.16 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.52 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 29% | Draw 42% | Sheffield Utd 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 29%, Sheffield Utd 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 0.71 PPG, Sheffield Utd 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.