Cardiff 0-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bournemouth make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.14 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 0L from 7 games (2.14 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 0.86. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Bournemouth are the stronger side — 0.57 PPG clear of the hosts (2.14 vs 1.57). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Bournemouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 71% and Bournemouth 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 57% | Bournemouth 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.06 xG and Bournemouth 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.086 / defence 1.195 | Bournemouth attack 0.799 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.268. Data: 7 Cardiff games / 7 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 29% | Draw 34% | Bournemouth 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Bournemouth 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Cardiff 100% | Bournemouth 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 29% | Draw 34% | Bournemouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Cardiff 1.06 / Bournemouth 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.086 / def 1.195 | Bournemouth attack 0.799 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Bournemouth xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Bournemouth kick off?
Cardiff vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Bournemouth?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Cardiff vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Bournemouth part of?
Cardiff vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 29% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cardiff and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Bournemouth in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.09) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.80x) against Cardiff's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
29%
3.42
34%
2.95
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.27
1.21
Bournemouth xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.21 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bournemouth's form line: 4W 3D 0L from 7 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cardiff.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cardiff have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.33 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cardiff
0
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Bournemouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2021, when Bournemouth 3-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Cardiff, 33% for Bournemouth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cardiff) and 33% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 67%; Bournemouth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cardiff's games and 33% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Cardiff's recent games and 33% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.06 xG and Bournemouth 1.21 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.09 / defence 1.20 against Bournemouth attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 29% | Draw 34% | Bournemouth 37%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 57%, Bournemouth 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.