Hull City 0-0 Millwall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Millwall at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Millwall encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Hull City and Millwall meet at MKM Stadium in Championship (Semi-finals). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Hull City have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Millwall (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Millwall have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Millwall arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Hull City's last 10 home games and Millwall's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Hull City's games and 70% of Millwall's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Hull City, who have won 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Millwall — Millwall have 1 win, with 3 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Mar 2026, ended Hull City 1–3 Millwall — a Millwall win.

The head-to-head data gives Hull City an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 92 games, 46 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (last 92 games, 46 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 58% versus Millwall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 48% | Millwall 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.09 xG and Millwall 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.053 / defence 1.112 | Millwall attack 1.108 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.210. Millwall bring a tight defence (rating 0.776, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hull City's projected output down. Data: built from Hull City's last 92 games and Millwall's last 92.

Result probabilities: Hull City 26% | Draw 29% | Millwall 45%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.84 | Draw 3.44 | Millwall 2.23. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 80% (last 10 home games) | Millwall 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights