Hull City 1-3 Millwall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Millwall at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Hull City — this Hull City vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Millwall meet at MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Hull City have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Millwall (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Millwall have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Hull City, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Millwall — Millwall have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Hull City 3–1 Millwall — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data gives Hull City an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Millwall 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 44% | Millwall 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.20 xG and Millwall 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.091 / defence 1.266 | Millwall attack 1.013 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.206. Hull City's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Millwall's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 81 games and Millwall's last 81.
Result probabilities: Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.52 | Draw 3.65 | Millwall 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | Millwall 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hull City 1.20 / Millwall 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.091 / def 1.266 | Millwall attack 1.013 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Millwall (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Millwall xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Millwall FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Millwall kick off?
Hull City vs Millwall kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Hull City 1 - 3 Millwall.
Where is Hull City vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Millwall part of?
Hull City vs Millwall is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 28% chance of winning, Millwall a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hull City and Millwall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.09x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (1.01x) against Hull City's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 81 games and Millwall's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
28%
3.52
27%
3.65
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.75
1.55
Millwall xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.57
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Millwall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hull City and 1.55 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 81 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 30W 19D 32L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Millwall's form line: 36W 20D 25L from 81 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Hull City against 1.58 for Millwall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 40 home games (14W 10D 16L).
On the road, Millwall have gone 14W 13D 13L from their last 40 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Millwall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Millwall Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Millwall in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 30W 19D 32L in their last 81 games (1.35 PPG), while Millwall have gone 36W 20D 25L in their last 81 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Millwall away?
Millwall's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.30 PPG; Millwall away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hull City or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Millwall in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
4
Draws
1
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Millwall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Millwall?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 5, Millwall have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Millwall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Millwall?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Millwall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hull City) and 35% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 35%; Hull City have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Millwall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Millwall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hull City's games and 50% of Millwall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Millwall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hull City's recent games and 35% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Millwall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Hull City's recent matches and 68% of Millwall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Millwall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Hull City 1-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.20 xG and Millwall 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Millwall outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.09 / defence 1.27 against Millwall attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, Millwall 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Millwall's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Millwall 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Millwall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 36
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →