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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Middlesbrough 1-0 at Wembley Stadium, Final, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.40 xG and Middlesbrough 1.69 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Middlesbrough attack 1.26 / defence 1.00, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 30% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 43%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 47%, Middlesbrough 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (94 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (94 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.34 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights