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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Derby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Derby 4-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.09 xG and Derby 1.89 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Derby attack 1.24 / defence 0.88, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 45%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Derby 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights