Hull City 4-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derby travel to MKM Stadium to take on Hull City in Championship (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Derby — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hull City 1.70 PPG, Derby 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Derby have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Hull City.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2025, ended Hull City 1–2 Derby — a Derby win.
Derby have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 45% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.09 xG and Derby 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.953 / defence 1.285 | Derby attack 1.236 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.190. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.236, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Hull City's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 78 games and Derby's last 79.
Result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.82 | Draw 4.11 | Derby 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Derby (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Derby 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hull City 1.09 / Derby 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.953 / def 1.285 | Derby attack 1.236 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Derby (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Derby xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Derby FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Derby kick off?
Hull City vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Derby?
Hull City 4 - 2 Derby.
Where is Hull City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Derby part of?
Hull City vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 21% chance of winning, Derby a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hull City and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.95x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 78 games and Derby's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
21%
4.82
24%
4.11
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.98
1.89
Derby xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
3%
31.93
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hull City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Hull City and 1.89 for Derby, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 78 games, going 28W 19D 31L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.26 PPG from 78 outings (26W 20D 32L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.32 PPG, Derby on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 13W 9D 16L across their last 38 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 38 away games (12W 9D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Derby in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 28W 19D 31L in their last 78 games (1.32 PPG), while Derby have gone 26W 20D 32L in their last 78 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Derby away?
Hull City's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.26 PPG; Derby away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Derby?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 1, Derby have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hull City) and 53% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hull City's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Hull City's recent games and 53% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Hull City's recent matches and 63% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Derby 4-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.09 xG and Derby 1.89 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Derby attack 1.24 / defence 0.88, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 45%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Derby 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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