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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.39 xG and Derby 1.20 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Derby attack 1.02 / defence 1.20, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 41% | Draw 26% | Derby 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derby's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.31 PPG, Derby 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights