Hull City 4-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hull City (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hull City face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Cardiff travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Hull City have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Hull City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cardiff, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Hull City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hull City and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 62% versus Cardiff 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 54% | Cardiff 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.33 xG and Cardiff 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.779 / defence 1.038 | Cardiff attack 0.808 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.106. Hull City's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Hull City games / 52 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 26%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Cardiff 3.85. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Cardiff 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Hull City 1.33 / Cardiff 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.779 / def 1.038 | Cardiff attack 0.808 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cardiff xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Cardiff kick off?
Hull City vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Hull City 4 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Hull City vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Cardiff part of?
Hull City vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 46% chance of winning, Cardiff a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hull City and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
Record (6 meetings): Hull City 6W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in?
Hull City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Hull City vs Cardiff?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.78x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.58
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.25
0.93
Cardiff xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hull City and 0.93 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 16D 16L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (19W 6D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.46 PPG, Cardiff on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 8W 11D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (9W 3D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.04 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 19W 6D 27L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Cardiff away?
Hull City's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.35 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hull City
0
Draws
1
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 7, Cardiff have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Cardiff?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 58%, Cardiff 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 54% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 54% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Cardiff tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 4-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.33 xG and Cardiff 0.93 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Cardiff attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 46% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 26%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 54%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.46 PPG, Cardiff 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.