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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hull City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Hull City 0-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.29 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Blackburn outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Blackburn attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 43% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 31%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Blackburn's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.10 PPG, Blackburn 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights