Hull City 0-3 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hull City welcome Blackburn to MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Blackburn have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackburn's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hull City) versus 1.40 (Blackburn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Hull City, 3 for Blackburn and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Blackburn trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 50% versus Blackburn 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 31% | Blackburn 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.29 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.121 / defence 1.085 | Blackburn attack 0.800 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.165. Data: 48 Hull City games / 48 Blackburn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 70% | Blackburn 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Hull City 1.29 / Blackburn 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.121 / def 1.085 | Blackburn attack 0.800 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Blackburn xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Blackburn kick off?
Hull City vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Hull City 0 - 3 Blackburn.
Where is Hull City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Blackburn part of?
Hull City vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 43% chance of winning, Blackburn a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hull City and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
Record (8 meetings): Hull City 4W | Draws 1 | Blackburn 3W.
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.53
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.30
1.01
Blackburn xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hull City and 1.01 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 14D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (19W 9D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackburn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.10 PPG, Blackburn on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 6W 8D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.12 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Blackburn
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Blackburn away?
Hull City's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.08 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Hull City or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Blackburn in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 5, Blackburn have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Blackburn?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 62%, Blackburn 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hull City) and 33% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 33% of games; Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hull City's recent matches and 38% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hull City's recent games and 33% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Hull City 0-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.29 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Blackburn outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Blackburn attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 43% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 31%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.10 PPG, Blackburn 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.