Hull City vs Blackburn – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Hull City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.02 xG and Blackburn 1.21 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Blackburn attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Blackburn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Blackburn's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Blackburn 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights