Hull City vs Blackburn – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
29%
3.42
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.23
1.21
Blackburn xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hull City and 1.21 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.