Hull City 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Birmingham in Championship (matchday 43). Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hull City have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Birmingham away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Hull City, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Birmingham — Birmingham have 1 win, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Hull City 3–2 Birmingham — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data gives Hull City an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Birmingham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 47% | Birmingham 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hull City surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Birmingham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.61 xG and Birmingham 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.072 / defence 1.216 | Birmingham attack 0.737 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.150. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Hull City's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Birmingham's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 88 games and Birmingham's last 42.
Result probabilities: Hull City 49% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 23%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.03 | Draw 3.58 | Birmingham 4.41. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Hull City 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 49% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Hull City 1.61 / Birmingham 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.072 / def 1.216 | Birmingham attack 0.737 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Hull City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Birmingham xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Birmingham kick off?
Hull City vs Birmingham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Hull City 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Hull City vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Birmingham part of?
Hull City vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 49% chance of winning, Birmingham a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hull City and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hull City's attack rating (1.07) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.74x) against Hull City's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 88 games and Birmingham's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.58
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.64
1.03
Birmingham xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
22.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hull City and 1.03 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 88 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 32W 21D 35L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 49W 20D 19L from 88 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Birmingham are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 44 home games (15W 12D 17L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 20W 8D 16L from their last 44 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.53 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 32W 21D 35L in their last 88 games (1.33 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 49W 20D 19L in their last 88 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.30 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Hull City or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Birmingham in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hull City
3
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Birmingham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 4, Birmingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Hull City 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Birmingham?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 61%, Birmingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hull City) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Birmingham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hull City's games and 52% of Birmingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hull City's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Hull City's recent matches and 80% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Hull City and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.61 xG and Birmingham 1.03 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Birmingham attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 49% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 23%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 47%, Birmingham 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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