🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat West Brom 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat West Brom 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.22 xG and West Brom 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against West Brom attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 30% | West Brom 36%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 52%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

West Brom's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.71 PPG, West Brom 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights