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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Swansea 2-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.20 xG and Swansea 1.18 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Swansea landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Swansea 34%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Swansea's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.23 PPG, Swansea 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights