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Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Derby 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.17 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 27/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sunderland's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.63 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights