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Poisson rates Sunderland at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Sunderland encounter.

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Match Analysis

Derby host Sunderland at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Derby — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Sunderland winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Derby trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Sunderland trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Sunderland 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Sunderland 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.854 / defence 1.162 | Sunderland attack 1.034 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.977. Data: 27 Derby games / 73 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Sunderland 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Sunderland 40%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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