Derby 2-0 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stoke City make the trip to Pride Park to face Derby in Championship (matchday 41). The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Derby (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Derby's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stoke City's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stoke City have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Derby, 1.20 for Stoke City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Derby, 2 for Stoke City and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Derby 1–3 Stoke City — a Stoke City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Stoke City — key trading statistics (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Stoke City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Stoke City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.34 xG and Stoke City 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.999 / defence 0.956 | Stoke City attack 0.718 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.206. Stoke City's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Derby's last 86 games and Stoke City's last 86.
Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 22%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.11 | Draw 3.28 | Stoke City 4.54. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Stoke City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derby 70% (last 10 home games) | Stoke City 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, matchday 41 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Derby 1.34 / Stoke City 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.999 / def 0.956 | Stoke City attack 0.718 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Stoke City xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Stoke City FAQs
What time does Derby vs Stoke City kick off?
Derby vs Stoke City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby 2 - 0 Stoke City.
Where is Derby vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Stoke City part of?
Derby vs Stoke City is a Championship fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 47% chance of winning, Stoke City a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derby and Stoke City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Derby vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.00x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.72x) against Derby's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 86 games and Stoke City's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.28
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Derby xG
Total xG
2.16
0.83
Stoke City xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Stoke City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derby and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Derby and 0.83 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 86 games, going 30W 20D 36L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.22 PPG from 86 outings (27W 24D 35L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Derby against 1.22 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 17W 11D 15L across their last 43 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 43 away games (10W 10D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.08 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Stoke City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Stoke City Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 30W 20D 36L in their last 86 games (1.28 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 27W 24D 35L in their last 86 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Stoke City away?
Derby's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.44 PPG; Stoke City away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Derby or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Derby and Stoke City, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
3
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Stoke City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 3, Stoke City have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Stoke City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Derby 0-1 Stoke City.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 49%, Stoke City 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Derby and 35% for Stoke City.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stoke City in 30%; Stoke City in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Stoke City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Stoke City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Derby's recent matches and 35% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Stoke City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Derby's recent games and 35% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Stoke City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Derby's recent matches and 54% of Stoke City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Stoke City 2-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.34 xG and Stoke City 0.83 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Stoke City attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 22%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Stoke City 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Stoke City's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.28 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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