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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Sheffield Wednesday 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.85 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.73 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.60 / defence 1.39, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 63% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 13%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Sheffield Wednesday 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights