Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sheffield Wednesday defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Wednesday beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.18 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.14 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 34%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sheffield Wednesday win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Sheffield Wednesday 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Wednesday winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights