Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.91) and Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.23
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Derby xG
Total xG
2.32
1.14
Sheffield Wednesday xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Derby and 1.14 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.