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Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Derby 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.91 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.42 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 23% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Utd 48%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Sheffield Utd 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights