Derby 0-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Utd at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Sheffield Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sheffield Utd at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 3W 2D 5L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Sheffield Utd have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Championship this season, Sheffield Utd have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sheffield Utd — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Derby, 2 for Sheffield Utd and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Sheffield Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Sheffield Utd 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Sheffield Utd 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.91 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.789 / defence 1.131 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.216 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.034. Derby's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sheffield Utd have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Derby games / 29 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 23% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Utd 48%. Fair-value odds: Derby 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Sheffield Utd 2.08. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Sheffield Utd 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 23% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Utd 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Derby 0.91 / Sheffield Utd 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.789 / def 1.131 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.216 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sheffield Utd xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Derby 0 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Derby vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 23% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Utd 2W.
What form are Derby and Sheffield Utd in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derby's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
23%
4.27
28%
3.51
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Derby xG
Total xG
2.33
1.42
Sheffield Utd xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
17.67
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.8 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Derby and 1.42 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 31W 13D 23L from 67 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 33L across 67 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Utd heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 20W 5D 8L from 33 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 9W 7D 17L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.12 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 31W 13D 23L in their last 67 games (1.58 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 21W 13D 33L in their last 67 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Derby's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.97 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Derby or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Sheffield Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Sheffield Utd specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
0
Draws
4
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 46%, Sheffield Utd 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 48% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Derby's recent matches and 52% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.91 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.42 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 23% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Utd 48%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Sheffield Utd 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.