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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out QPR 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat QPR 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.28 xG and QPR 1.21 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against QPR attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 38% | Draw 27% | QPR 35%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, QPR 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

QPR's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.07 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights