Derby vs Portsmouth – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Derby run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Portsmouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Portsmouth 4-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.67 xG and Portsmouth 1.20 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portsmouth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against Portsmouth attack 0.97 / defence 1.41, drawn from 20/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 48%, Portsmouth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Portsmouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.72 PPG, Portsmouth 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights