Derby vs Portsmouth – Predictions
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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.69
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Derby xG
Total xG
2.87
1.20
Portsmouth xG
DerbyDrawPortsmouth
2.13
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.673
λ Away (xG)
1.199
Total xG
2.872
League avg home goals
1.330
League avg away goals
1.025
Derby attack strength
0.894
Derby defence strength
1.207
Portsmouth attack strength
0.970
Portsmouth defence strength
1.408
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
20 / 18